Environmental Justice

Fragile Environment, Fragile State: Conflict, Crisis and Climate Change
By Surendrini Wijeyaratne

"Peace, development and environmental protection are interdependent and indivisible." - Principle 25, Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
Dry river bed in Kenya.

Climate change, by accelerating adverse impacts of environmental degradation, contributes to poverty, marginalization and violent conflict. The intensity and frequency of climate-related natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and cyclones, is leading to an increase in humanitarian disasters.  Fragile states, with an already limited capacity to respond to crisis, will be further tested by the simultaneous challenges of poverty, conflict, crisis, and climate change.  
 
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), an estimated 250 million people are affected by natural disasters yearly, mostly from climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods.  Humanitarian disasters occur when natural hazards such as droughts and floods meet human vulnerability such as poverty, displacement, and loss of land and livelihood.  The close to 80 percent of the world population that lives in the developing world faces 90 percent of the disasters.   Women, children, the elderly, the disabled, and the politically and socio-economically marginalized are most vulnerable to the harshest impacts of humanitarian crisis.

Violent conflicts can emerge when communities struggle over access to limited resources or where an abundance of natural wealth is plundered and exploited by armed groups, multinational corporations, and profiteering individuals.  A state’s ability to govern and manage the distribution of natural resources influences the extent to which environmental resources become a factor in political and social instability. 

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FRAGILE STATES

Conflict

How will climate change affect fragile states?  Climate change, an added challenge for fragile states with weak governance capacity, will lead to environmental degradation testing the resilience of local communities and the state. Socio-economic and political tensions, particularly in societies dependent on natural resources for immediate sustenance and livelihoods, could be exacerbated by

climate change.

According to the international conflict prevention think-tank, International Crisis Group, three factors affect a society’s vulnerability to climate change. They are: 

• “ The extent to which societies are dependent on natural resources and ecosystem services;
• The extent to which the resources and services that societies do rely on are sensitive to changes in climate; and
• Adaptive capacity – the capacity of societies to adapt to changes in these resources and services.”

International Alert (IA) in its Climate of Conflict report identifies political instability, economic weakness, food insecurity, and large-scale migration as risk factors which could lead to violence in under-developed countries. According to the report, 46 countries, totaling a population of 2.7 billion, are at high risk for near-term violence because the impacts of climate change are compounding existing economic, social, and political tensions.  IA states that governments and citizens of those 46 countries will face the immediate and dual challenge of climate change and violent conflict. A further 56 countries, according to the report, are vulnerable to political instability.

The Case of Sudan

Environmental degradation can be added to the list of causes of the conflict in Sudan’s Darfur region. Most of Sudan lies in the Sahel, a region recognized by the Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) as the most vulnerable in the world to droughts.  Tensions, over land and grazing rights, between pastoralists and farmers have long existed. However, with the intensification of drought, pressure for scarce water and pasture have also increased, adding to an already complex and brutal conflict.

The Darfur example illustrates the additional challenge that climate change poses to conflict-affected fragile states. The impacts of environmental degradation and climate change cannot be seen outside of the political context of a state’s relationship with its citizens. Examining how the Sudanese government and the international community have responded to increased vulnerability brought on by climate change is critical. Indeed, many conflict analysts have warned that the conflict in Darfur cannot be singularly attributed to climate change impacts, or to being a resource-based conflict between tribes. What is important to consider is the government’s management of natural resources between different tribes, ethnic groups, and other communities, and the government’s inability or unwillingness to respond to increased tensions brought about by the degradation of natural resources caused by climate change.

Humanitarian Crisis

According to the OCHA, an estimated 634 million people living in at-risk coastal areas and 2 billion people living in arid regions are expected to become severely water stressed. Least Developed Countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south and south-east Asia are confronted with the simultaneous challenge of poverty, conflict, and humanitarian crisis.   During the course of just one year, a country in these regions could face two or three types of natural hazards such as floods, droughts, and cyclones stressing both state and community coping mechanisms.  

Humanitarian response has traditionally focused on saving lives, with the severity of a disaster measured in human terms through the number of dead, injured, displaced, diseased, lost livelihoods, etc.  Decades of experience in the humanitarian field has demonstrated that responding to disasters is not enough.  Preventing disasters and being prepared when disasters strike are equally important.  Disaster risk reduction (DRR), which focuses on reducing human vulnerability to hazards like droughts, floods and cyclones by increasing the resilience of communities, is critical for developing countries most affected by climate change.

The harmful humanitarian con­sequences of climate change, such as lost lives, livelihoods, disease and massive displacement, can be limited with investments in adaptation and disaster risk reduction. 

RESPONDING TO CONFLICT, CRISIS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation

Conflict-sensitivity is based on analyzing the root and trigger causes of conflict, identifying the stakeholders and affected groups, and determining the political context in which a program is being implemented. Examples of conflict-sensitive programming include measures to promote social tolerance and non-discrimination, empower and include marginalized groups, and ensure fair access to program benefits.

In conflict-prone fragile states, unless adaptation strategies consider the additional element of conflict-sensitivity, adaptation efforts could unintentionally contribute to instability and conflict. For example, in northern Kenya simply increasing agriculture production in arid and semi-arid regions to increase food security could cause tension between farmers and pastoral communities if pastoralists’ needs for grazing land and access to water are not considered.

Adaptation efforts can support peace by promoting social justice, human rights, and gender equality by ensuring adaptation efforts are accessible and responsive to both women and men in vulnerable and marginalized communities. Adaptation, in this sense, could also have a conflict prevention benefit.

However, to date, there appears to be minimal to no guidance on integrating conflict-sensitive approaches into adaptation programs and policies. There have been no clear articulations of peace and conflict considerations in existing adaptation frameworks or policy statements. The United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Adaptation Policy Framework for Climate Change includes no specific mention of conflict analysis and is indicative of a general gap in linking climate change adaptation and conflict/fragility agendas.

Climate Change Adaption and Disaster Risk Reduction

Disasters occur when environmental hazards interact with physical, social, and economic vulnerabilities causing harmful human impacts such as lost lives and livelihoods,

and displacement. 

In 2005, 168 governments signed the Hyogo Declaration outlining an Action Plan to reduce disaster risks.   The Action Plan calls for the integration of disaster risk considerations into development programs in order to build systematic resilience to extreme weather events.

The humanitarian community is working on integrating adaptation into humanitarian response and disaster risk reduction programs. Similarly, climate change adaptation strategies should incorporate disaster risk reduction frameworks and consider these activities as eligible for adaptation funding.   

Humanitarian, development and climate change communities all have critical roles to play in ensuring disaster risk reduction is supported in vulnerable communities.   The three sectors need to work together strategically to ensure a consistent and complimentary approach in adaptation frameworks, disaster risk reduction strategies, and in development programming.

Climate Change Adaptation and Peace-Building

Peace-building, a term originally applied to the post-conflict context, is now used more broadly to refer to a set of activities, at the international, national and local levels, that help promote stability and end violence.

Peace-building practitioners are aware of the need for environmentally sustainable programs recognizing the links between natural resources and conflict in places like Sudan and Kenya. However, peace-building practitioners and policy-makers have not yet focused substantively on the implications of climate change on their work or on how peace-building programs may need to be more climate-sensitive.

The environment, and even climate change, could offer peace-building opportunities in conflict-affected areas. Climate change could be a mobilizing point around which antagonists see a common threat and unifying purpose in protecting and sharing resources.

The links between peace-building and climate change are nascent. More needs to be done to engage conflict-analysis and peace-building practitioners in climate change adaptation discourses. And the peace-building community needs to be pro-active in engaging in the new field of climate change adaptation.

Protecting the Rights of the Vulnerable

The consequences of climate change are proving to be a further injustice for the world’s poor, jeopardizing their right to land, sustenance, and a livelihood. Environmental injustices, such as unfair access to land and water, can contribute to poverty, marginalization, humanitarian crises, and violent conflict. Preventing disasters and the humanitarian toll of natural disasters and reducing risk to climate-hazards for vulnerable communities are critical to ensuring those least responsible for climate change do not bear the disproportionate burden of the climate crisis.  The just and equitable management of natural resources is vital to both sustainable development and durable peace.  Linking climate change adaptation to conflict-sensitivity, disaster risk reduction, and peace-building agendas will help to ensure that the rights of those most adversely affected by climate change are protected.

Find Out More

• The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
• The Hyogo Declaration on Disaster Reduction
• International Alert
• International Crisis Group